Housing Need and Supply
The protection upon LPA’s with Local Plans less than 5 years’ old exempting them from Housing Land Supply challenges and the associated transitional 4-year supply arrangements which were introduced in December 2023 have been removed. Authorities are once again expected to maintain a 5 Year Housing Land Supply, regardless of their Local Plan Status.
Another reversal from the December 2023 NPPF is the proposed removal of the “advisory starting point” wording within paragraph 61 (now renumbered to paragraph 62). The Written Ministerial Statement confirms in no uncertain terms that this should be mandatory, stating that “mandating that the standard method is used as the basis for determining local authorities’ housing requirements in all circumstances.”
The standard method once again is firmly in place to calculate local housing need requirement, however the calculation method itself is changing. A change has been long called for by many in the industry with the current method being based on housing projections from 2014 and the broad-brush urban uplift not being considered fully fit for purpose. The new method removes these elements and takes a more simplified 2 stage approach;
- Take 0.8% of the current housing stock of the area;
- Apply an uplift, based on a three-year average of the median workplace-based affordability ratio, with an increase of 15% for every unit above four.
Ultimately, this results in a need for 371,541 homes (according to the government’s own schedule), representing an increase of 66k+ homes per annum. Multiplied across 5 years, the country’s need would be 1.85m homes, making the government’s ambition to achieve the delivery of 1.5m homes across their term seem plausible, that is if the country was able to meet its identified need. Unfortunately, the likelihood of meeting that need in delivery terms is not that simple, with last year’s annual completions sitting at only 231,100 homes.
However, aiming for a higher level of homes within plan-making and decision-taking is definitely a positive move in principle at the macro scale. Brookbanks has been advising clients on regional and LPA focussed basis and for the vast majority of LPA’s or joint planning units, there is an upward trend. The highest increases (outside of London) can be seen in Cornwall, Wiltshire and Cheshire East all with over 1,500 homes added to the per annum requirement. However, there are a series of LPA’s who will see their need decrease and there are some geographical trends that can be recognised. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the first grouping is half the cities which were previously subject to the urban uplift, of the 10 cities, the most significant decreases are in the West Midlands, with 2,200 and 1,554 homes per annum reductions in Birmingham and Coventry respectively.
Of the remaining LPAs where decreases in need arise from the new method, the East of England is the most affected, which is a little more surprising, as from our experience housing demand is still a major issue for this area and it is not widely known to have bucked trends regarding delivery/affordability. Luton, Central Bedfordshire and Bedford Borough all see decreases in need under the new standard method, all of which are at progressing Local Plan Reviews with varying advancement. Whilst a reduction of circa 93 units per annum from Bedford’s need requirement won’t equate to the equivalent of homes that were to be delivered at Kempston Hardwick and have been questioned at examination due to the Universal Project proposals, there could be some impact on the extent of potential new additional allocations.
There will need undoubtedly be further scrutiny over the method in the coming weeks, but it must be acknowledged that there will always be ‘winners and losers’ in applying a national standard method, as no mechanism will be able to account for all the vast variables that could affect particular regions.
Another amendment to affect supply calculations is that only a 5% or 20% buffer shall be applied when calculating the supply of specific deliverable sites, and there will no longer be a circumstance where a 10% buffer is applied.
Something to continue to look out for is the ‘long-term housing strategy’ that the Written Ministerial Statement confirmed will be published alongside the Spending Review. This Review is due to be concluded in Spring 2025, after the departmental budgets for this and the next financial year are confirmed at the Autumn Budget.
With the New Homes Taskforce establishment and intention for further appointments over the next two months, we anticipate that least some initial framework details for New Town ambitions will be included within the long-term housing strategy.